Apparently, radiance can trigger even after just one lost 50/50
What happened to me today really bamboozled me!
After winning my 50/50 on Nefer (before that I pulled Flins so the radiance counter reseted) I through some pulls on Varesas banner trying to get more Iansans. Got spooked by the gold light but that was just Diluc. Great! With that my Columbina guaranty was set so today I started casually pulling the moon goddes and got so confused and shocked when the light turned pink!!!
For a while I just set there re-checking in my memory my pull history cos from my knowledge (at the time) radiances only start falling after 2 consecutive 50/50 losses and I knew I only lost 1 so far! Just how many 5 stars are there in this 10 pull??? I was honestly expecting a ridiculous number but only 2 ended up showing up. Not gonna lie, that felt a bit disappointing cos hell I hyped myself up high but a double is still a double (my first ever)!
But now I know that radiances can in fact trigger after just 1 lost 50/50. I am curious what is the chance though?
After winning my 50/50 on Nefer (before that I pulled Flins so the radiance counter reseted) I through some pulls on Varesas banner trying to get more Iansans. Got spooked by the gold light but that was just Diluc. Great! With that my Columbina guaranty was set so today I started casually pulling the moon goddes and got so confused and shocked when the light turned pink!!!
For a while I just set there re-checking in my memory my pull history cos from my knowledge (at the time) radiances only start falling after 2 consecutive 50/50 losses and I knew I only lost 1 so far! Just how many 5 stars are there in this 10 pull??? I was honestly expecting a ridiculous number but only 2 ended up showing up. Not gonna lie, that felt a bit disappointing cos hell I hyped myself up high but a double is still a double (my first ever)!
But now I know that radiances can in fact trigger after just 1 lost 50/50. I am curious what is the chance though?
Commentaires
It basically works like a counter between 0-3 that starts at 1. You gain +1 if you lose, you lose -1 if you win the 5050. CR resets it to 1.
1-> you lose ->2
2 -> you lose->3 (next one is CR)
1 -> you win -> 0
2-> you win -> 1
CR can appear at a counter of 2, but its very unlikely. (it did happen to me on durins banner tho😭). If its at 3, your next one will be guaranteed CR! So its not impossible!
You could also win (0) then lose (1) lose again (2) and lose a third time (3) and only THEN get a CR. Just keep in mind where on that string you are and you may be able to predict the CR!
edit: i checked and i got qiqi on lauma's banner, tighnari on nefer's and dehya on durin's. i can attach photos but i can dm them to you
edit: i just read your other comment, it seems everything is settled already :D
If you did get a CR then it would be as follows:
1: loss -> 2: loss -> 3, the next one should be a capturing radiance.
If you won before that then its not guaranteed.
(won)-> 0: loss -> 1 : loss 2 -> next one could either be a win or a loose. You always have to count from either the beginning of Natlan (if you havent gotten CR) or your last CR :) Its a bit confusing bit the tldr is, that the worst case are 3 loses in a row.
But what the Seelies say about how Capturing Radiance works is basically official information straight from Hoyoverse. We have no reason to doubt it.
edit: no at that point the counter system itself is useless. Basically just lose 3 times and you get it
I would like to see the data and research from the other commenter before coming to a conclusion.
The commenter’s current reasoning is that the Seelies in discord are “basically official information straight from Hoyoverse” so trust me bro
According to past data that is (the 4m pulls analysis post from last year), not discord mods.
Ty for explaining and helping us know what to look for in wish history!
I personally prefer to trust people who have done research based off of 4 million data points over a “trust me bro” and the people coming across our comment chain can also decide for themselves based off of the information given so far.
Since nothing has been confirmed, neither theory is right or wrong.
The theory you mentioned was the going theory before the one Sofia mentioned was developed based on a data analysis of 4 million pulls ([post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Genshin_Impact/comments/1hd1sqa/understanding_genshin_impacts_capturing_radiance/)). Maybe the Seelie Guide in question doesn't really know the answer either and just doesn't have the most up-to-date info.
> The base probability of triggering "Capturing Radiance" is 0.018%...
1st columbina was the guarantee and the 2nd triggered radiance. With that your counter should be back to 1. If you win the next 50/50 it would reduce to 0
A 50/50 loss reduces it by 1 and a win raises it, it can't go below 0 or above 3 and triggering radiance resets to 1
I might be sleep deprived, but I think you mean a loss raises it by 1
I have lost every possible 50/50 since then but Radiance has at least somewhat helped me out. (And has kept me somewhat sane)
Context: I pulled Skirk, Shenhe, Mauvika, Citatli, Ineffa, Flins, Lauma, Nefer, Columbina. (Who was my most recent Radiance guarantee)
Before my break I think I was very above average on won 50/50. Now I don't even try to hope for it.
i thought people calculated when it was implemented that you have 60% chance now to get the rate-up cuz of it.
50% standard then if it failed you had a 10% chance it rerolled again, n if you hit that you got Radiance.
is that not how it works or am i out of the loop?
If you lose 1 50/50 the next one will first check your 50/50, if you were supposed to lose it you get your capturing radiance checked and the first one is a 25/75 (so your overall winning chance would be 62.5% 50% first then 25 if you lost the 50)
If you lost it then second one would be again 50/50 then if lost then capturing radiance would be another 50/50 (so a 75% chance of winning overall)
If you lost again, the third one would be 50/50 then capturing radiance would be a 100/0 so a 100% chance of winning the 50/50.
And in the end, if you made infinite wishes and checked your winning rate you should be around 60% instead of 50% because of capturing radiance. Hope this help.
After triggering, counter resets to 1 and each time you reach 3, next is radiance again. A win lower counter by 1 and a loss raises by 1 but will never goes below zero. There's a chance to trigger before counter reaches 3 but is significantly lower.
thank u for explaining
Gettings Flins on CR should have set it back to 1 point. then OP won 50/50 which sets it to 0 points.
So im very curious what the actual percentage odds are per point 🤔
Btw how does it rlly work? I got mine on Lauma's banner and i thought it was like, after a TON of five stars
1 is the default start point. You get reset here if you've just won a CR, or you're new.
Losing a 50/50 is +1 point. Winning is -1 point.
When you have 2 points, and lose 50/50, you have a chance at triggering CR. At 3 points you're guaranteed to trigger CR.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Genshin_Impact) if you have any questions or concerns.*